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While Tom Brady had been considered the undisputed greatest player in NFL history for quite some time, the question remained as to whether the New England Patriots’ dynasty owed its success to Brady’s play or to the play-calling of Bill Belichick, who is widely regarded as the greatest head coach in NFL history. After joining the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and winning his 7th Super Bowl and 5th Super Bowl MVP, while Belichick’s Patriots struggled with mediocre quarterback play and finished with a losing record, it seemed undeniable that Brady, rather than Belichick, was indeed the driving force of those dominant Patriots teams. It was rather poetic and ironic that the one man that had bet on Brady with the 199th pick in the 2000 NFL Draft was the driving force for Brady's departure from New England and into another Super Bowl in Tampa Bay.
Just looking at Brady's accomplishments and accolades, there seems to be absolutely no way to make an argument that any other quarterback has had a greater career than Brady’s. However, it is critical to understand and take into account that in football, unlike in other sports, a player usually only plays either offense or defense. As such, it is erroneous and unfounded to simply say that Brady was the sole reason for the success of his teams just because he was the quarterback.
For this reason, I decided to scrutinize Brady's career and compare it to the other top quarterbacks of his generation; specifically, I examined how good each quarterback’s teammates were, especially with regards to defense.
Results
From the data, it is irrefutable that Brady has had more defensive help than most quarterbacks have had in their career, as he has never played on a team without a defense rated among the top ten in the league. Only 12% of Brady's playoff wins have happened without a top 10 defense, compared to 79% for Peyton Manning, 100% for Patrick Mahomes, 55% for Aaron Rodgers, and 78% for Drew Brees. The data puts into perspective how easy Brady has had it compared to everybody else.
And though the media loves to portray Brady as a superstar who consistently delivers brilliant passing-games for his team during the playoffs, it is when his playoff statistics are examined that we can see their apparent mediocrity compared to other qualified quarterbacks. Brady's low Yards Per Attempt (YPA) playoff ranking highlights the stark difference between him and other top quarterbacks who are evidently more talented at throwing the football than he is.
2020 Playoffs
After the playoffs, many sports writers and analysts raved about how Brady beat Brees’ Saints, Rodgers’ Packers, and Mahomes’ defending champion Chiefs on his way to a 7th Lombardi Trophy; but they ignored how the Buccaneers' defense helped Brady immensely. Out of the 304 games Drew Brees has started, the Bucs held him to his 300th highest rated game, and the Bucs' offense was only able to score touchdowns after turnovers set up by their defense. After Brady's 3 interceptions in the NFC Championship, the team got the ball back without surrendering a first down on two drives and only gave up 6 points in total. And finally, the Super Bowl again showed Brady's inability to dominate as a lethal passer, as he completed only 46% of passes over 5 yards, while the Bucs’ vaunted defense held Patrick Mahomes to the worst game in his career. The Bucs pass rushers, Devin White, Shaquil Barrett, and Ndamukong Suh, were all over Mahomes the entire night, pressuring him in less than 2.5 seconds on a Super Bowl record 29 (43%) of his dropbacks. On the other hand, Tom Brady faced his fewest pressures (4) in any of his previous Super Bowls.
Brady vs. Mahomes
Though his Super Bowl performance was rather poor on paper, Mahomes deserves credit for his performance, as he put in a great deal of effort and made spectacular plays in an attempt to will his team to victory. He repeatedly threw highly accurate passes from unnatural angles that no quarterback currently in the NFL can make at a regular rate. In the 2020 regular season and playoffs, Mahomes posted the best passer rating (126.7) when teams rushed him with more than 5 players. Specifically against the blitz, Mahomes had a better completion percentage (67.3 to 58.9), higher yards per attempt (8.8 to 7.8), more touchdowns (14 to 12), and fewer interceptions (0 to 6) than Brady.
Brady vs. Manning
In comparing Brady to Manning, who is considered to be his greatest rival, the narrative is that Brady “destroys” Manning because he has more playoff accolades, while Manning has been labeled as a "playoff choker" and only a "regular season player." However, Manning has the upper hand in playoff head-to-head games (a 3-2 record) and AFC Championship games (3-1); in fact, he is only one of two quarterbacks to ever beat a Tom Brady led team in a conference championship game. Further, Manning currently holds the record for most game-winning drives (54), most passing yards in a season (5,477), most passing TDs in a season (55), most MVPs (5), most first team All-Pro selections for a quarterback (7), and most 4000 passing yard seasons (14). On top of all this, Manning has never had the consistency on the defensive side of the football like Brady has. Looking back at the graphs, Manning has the most playoff wins without a top 10 defense and the second most seasons without a top defense, making what he accomplished even more impressive. In fact, Manning’s 2006 Indianapolis Colts team had the worst run defense in the NFL but still won the Super Bowl after Manning led a 21-3 comeback to defeat Brady in the AFC Championship, finishing it off with a game-winning drive.
The table above shows the difference between their regular season and playoff stats. Manning has a much steeper drop off in win percentage than Brady even though he, mostly, edges Brady out in the other stats, highlighting that Manning had teams with much worse defenses and thus had to ‘carry’ them more.
Let's now compare their teams when they were replaced at quarterback. In 2011, Manning was forced to sit out the entire season after neck surgery; that season the Colts for the first time had a losing record (2-14) for the first time since 2001 and obtained the first overall pick in the next year’s draft, selecting future 4 time Pro Bowler Andrew Luck. On the other hand, after Tom Brady had a season-ending ACL tear, the Patriots still had a top 5 offense and finished with an 11-5 record.
Many people will cite that the Patriots became much worse when Brady left for the Buccaneers this past year. However, the Patriots offense with Brady averaged 1.97 points per drive and 1.92 points per drive without him. However, a principal reason for the decline in the record could be that the defense dropped from best in the league in 2019 to just 16th to 2020.
Brady vs. Rodgers
This clip shows the importance of also using the “eye test” when comparing quarterbacks. Both of these plays gained 29 yards and both QBs had the same stats; however, it is obvious which of the plays was a product of scheme and which was a product of talent. But, let's also compare their playoff stats to see which quarterback has been more impressive. Rodgers outdoes Brady in most major stats (CMP%, TD%, INT%, YPA, and Passer Rating). Why is it, then, that Brady has 7 Super Bowls wins while Rodgers only has 1? In accordance with the theme of Brady’s success, it’s defense. In fact, he has a higher winning percentage in playoff games in which he threw 3 interceptions (75%) than Rodgers has when he threw 3 touchdowns (63%).
Everything aforementioned is not intended to claim that Brady is not one of the greatest quarterbacks to play in the NFL. Although he may be overrated, he is still an all-time great QB for the way he can read defenses and take what they give him. Though he may fall behind other top quarterbacks in some playoff statistics, Brady is the clutchest playoff performer of all time, leading 6 Super Bowl game-winning drives, and he has the most playoff game-winning drives in history, more than double that of second place. Moreover, it is extremely impressive that Brady is still playing at a top 10 level at the age of 43, something no other quarterback has been or probably ever will be able to do.
In conclusion, Brady has gotten more help than most quarterbacks will ever receive, and it’s benefitted him tremendously. His championship seasons owed a significant portion of their success to the top defenses Brady played with, a trend not seen with other quarterbacks; his playoff statistics are indicative of a top quarterback, but not the greatest of all time. Although it's rare to make an argument against Brady being the GOAT, that argument does indeed exist.
Edited By: Varchas Bharadwaj
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