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As the shortened 72 game NBA regular season is set to start on December 22, I'd like to take a deep look into the potential MVP candidates for this year and make my official prediction for which players will finish top 5 in MVP voting. While I am in no way stating who I believe the definitive best player in basketball is, I am looking into the top stars of the league to see which player has the best case to hoist this trophy at the conclusion of the season. To do this, I ranked these players based on 4 different criteria, team record, narrative, statistical performance, and film analysis.
My MVP short list was created by using ESPN's top 15 predicted players for the season, the last 3 rookie of the year winners or runner ups, and any player who has finished top 3 in MVP voting over the last 5 seasons. This gives us the following list of 20 players.
Lebron James
Anthony Davis
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Luka Doncic
Kawhi Leonard
Kevin Durant
Damian Lillard
Steph Curry
James Harden
Nikola Jokic
Jayson Tatum
Jimmy Butler
Bam Adebayo
Joel Embiid
Chris Paul
Russell Westbrook
Ja Morant
Zion Williamson
Trae Young
Ben Simmons
The First Criteria: Team Success
Historically, the MVP award has been given to a player whose team finishes as a top 3 seed in their respective conference. A notable exception to this trend occurred in 2017, when Russell Westbrook won the MVP while his team finished as the 6th seed in the western conference. Considering this as an extreme case scenario for the league, we can immediately rule out any player whose team is probably not going to crack the top 4 or 5 in their conference. While the record of a candidate's team will be incorporated into my final rankings at the end of this article, this criteria immediately shortens our list to the following players.
Lebron James
Anthony Davis
Giannis Antetokounmpo
Luka Doncic
Kawhi Leonard
Kevin Durant
James Harden
Nikola Jokic
Jayson Tatum
Jimmy Butler
Bam Adebayo
Joel Embiid
Ben Simmons
The Second Criteria: Season Narrative
The MVP is rarely selected based on who the media believes is the best player in the NBA, but rather who had the best individual season. An important part of this is the storyline behind the player's successes, as well as what expectations were set for them based on prior years. Certain players like Lebron and Kawhi are sure to take games off this year, while others like Bam and Simmons fail to be viewed as the definitive best player on their own teams. Giannis is a rare case, since he is coming off of back to back MVP awards in the 2018-2019 and 2019-2020 seasons, and will likely suffer from voter fatigue, as the media will expect him to improve significantly if he wants his name in the running. Another example of this would be a player like James Harden, who is currently unhappy with his situation in Houston and won't get any sympathy from the media for his lackluster team chemistry. Again, while the narrative of a candidate will be incorporated into my final rankings at the end of this article, this second criteria immediately shortens our list to the following 7 players.
Anthony Davis
Luka Doncic
Kevin Durant
Nikola Jokic
Jayson Tatum
Jimmy Butler
Joel Embiid
The Third Criteria: Prediction of Statistical Performance
In this section I won't eliminate as many candidates since all of these players have proven to be All NBA talents who can succeed as the leader of their teams while simultaneously putting up big numbers in key moments of both the regular season and playoffs.
(The Variation between the best players in the league and the top MVP voting finishers)
The main view of a player's individual performance comes from the eye test, and sometimes people are unable to quantify the best aspects of a player such as off-ball movement or screen setting that add a dynamic to the team, as these are not accurately reflected in the box score of a game. While statistics like PPG and APG are commonly used by people to justify a player's performance over the course of the year, the best players in the league tend to do more than what is reflected on the traditional box score. To determine who are truly the most valuable NBA players in the league, one would have to consider advanced metrics and detailed film analysis, which don't usually come up as the major factors that media personnel use to determine who they vote for MVP. Due to this factor in the voting system, we will be saving the advanced player analysis for our midseason rankings article, but until then we will simply be relying on the same stats that the top media voters and on-air personalities rely on when making their picks.
The statistics that we will be looking at for this upcoming season include:
*All in 36 minutes per game
Points per Game(PPG)
Assists Per Game(APG)
Rebounds Per Game(RPG)
Defensive Plays Per Game( A combination of blocks and steals, DPG)
True Shooting Percentage( A combination of FG%, FT%, and 3P%, TSP)
Wins Shares/48 min(WS/48)
With the combination of both production and impact stats, we create the MVP Index, which measures a player's value in terms of statistics that most correlate to past MVP voting results by the media.
If we analyze the metrics that have had the highest correlation with MVP votes in the last 5 seasons, we see a significant relationship with stats like points per game and win shares per 48 mins.
Average Placement: 3.33
Standard Deviation: 3.24
Average Placement: 4.87
Standard Deviation: 4.22
However, there are also stats such as blocks per game where we see very little correlation between placement and MVP potential.
Average Placement: 67.80
Standard Deviation: 51.29
Using this method for all of the statistics mentioned above, I was able to weight each statistic in my MVP Index algorithm accordingly in order to best predict which stat lines posed the highest chances of winning the award. To gather the predictive data for the upcoming season, I utilized a Simple Projection System(SPS) forecasting model for the key players I was interested in testing. SPS is a basic way of predicting the upcoming stat lines of NBA players by factoring in their past performances, as well as their age in order to determine upcoming improvements or reductions in their overall production. I was able to acquire this projection data by using the website BasketballReference.com.
After inputing the projected stats of the 7 key players we are analyzing, we get these results:
MVP Index prediction for 2020-2021 Season
Anthony Davis: 91.39
Luka Doncic: 88.67
Kevin Durant: 87.95*
Nikola Jokic: 89.79
Jayson Tatum: 70.31
Jimmy Butler: 79.81
Joel Embiid: 83.75
*For Kevin Durant, the right achilles injury will likely affect his overall performance and rather than predict his stats for the upcoming season, we will assume that he is at 95% capacity of his last full healthy season on the thunder, in which he played a similar role to the team he is on now.
While most of the players appear to be in the same tier as one another, 2 outliers exist for Jimmy Butler and Jayson Tatum. While Jimmy butler is coming off a historic NBA finals run, his high-level impact on winning is offset by his lack of consistency offensively, which ultimately brings down his scoring production. Tatum suffers from the opposite problem, as his scoring and defense consistently improve year by year, but his impact on winning is fairly low for a potential top 10 player in the league. His lack of production outside of scoring and rebounding fails to offset this lack of impact, which is why his MVP index falls so much lower than the other candidates.
The Fourth Criteria: Pre-season film analysis
While the MVP index factors in the predicted stats of these players for the upcoming season, it doesn't' account for how their play style may change due to their new teammates or coaches. To account for this, we can go through their pre-season footage to account for what personnel factors may not be represented in the box score analysis.
Anthony Davis
Taking a look at his top game of the pre-season gives us a good preview of what to expect from him this season. In the first play we see a new dynamic of Davis's game, as he sits at the three point line and utilizes Lebron's gravity to create spacing for himself. His 3-point shot has been gradually improving his entire career, and we can see how this opens up new avenues for his offense, as he knocks down 6 in this game. At 0:14, 0:31 and 1:00, we can see how he is able to abuse smaller players down in the mid post area, and these mismatches will only become more frequent with his new offensively talented teammates Marc Gasol and Montrezl Harrell, who will also draw the attention of the opposing team's big man. Marc Gasol provides a new 2 big man 5-out option for the Lakers that they lacked last season, and at 0:44 we see how AD now has more spacing to attack how he pleases with Marc Gasol opting to space the floor in the corner. A great example of Davis's new three point game combined with the Laker's new big men is shown at 1:49, as he is able to pump fake at the top of the key and easily get into the lane since the gravity of Harrell causes the defender to sink too low into the paint, unable to generate good help defense against the quick 6'10 player with guard like capabilities. Overall the key additions of Gasol and Harrell provide more mismatches and spacing for AD offensively, and will only increase his role defensively as the primary rim protector of the team.
Luka Doncic
A key component of Luka Doncic's MVP case will be dictated by how he plays without Kristaps Porzingis.The Mavericks offseason acquisitions will help them defensively, but with their all star big man likely out for the first month of the season, they will have to rely on more isolation pick and rolls like we see in the video. The offense revolves around Luka Doncic and his unreal passing ability out of the pick and roll. In the first 2 clips we see him utilize the pick and roll, and his strength allows him to get into the lane and pass to the many shooters on the mavericks that can knock down shots at a high rate. He can also turn this into an isolation like at 0:31, which he turns into his patented step back jumper. A part of Doncic's game that has been lacking in previous years is his off ball movement, and a glimpse of potential improvement is shown at 0;42, in which the shooting around him compensates for his lack of speed, opening up the paint for a wide open layup. His size at the point guard position still gives him a huge advantage when attacking the basket, which is shown at 1:40 when he is able to overpower Brook Lopez. Luka hasn't appeared to make any monumental changes to his game, as his jumper and defense are yet to improve to a point that takes him to the next level as an NBA player. Overall the mavericks lineup remains very similar to what it was last year, and I expect Luka to put up similar numbers to his MVP caliber season and bubble post-season performance.
Kevin Durant
There are 2 important factors in Durant's MVP case, his return from injury and his fit in the Brooklyn Net's system. While much of his play during the regular season will be unknown, his pre-season performances show promise for another MVP caliber season. In the first 3 clips he is able to push off his right foot and accelerate well, and as he is primarily a jump shooter, his game will likely not suffer greatly from the injury. With creators on his team like Kyrie Irving and Spencer Dinwiddie, Durant will get many off ball opportunities like he did in golden state, and he can attack off the catch well as shown at 1:07 and 1:22. The nets will run a much more isolation heavy offense than Golden State did, and Kevin will have to pick his moments to defer to talented guards like Kyrie, Dinwiddie, and Levert, similar to how he played in OKC with Russel Westbrook. An area where he can use his talents without interfering with his teammates scoring opportunities is in transition with his deadly jumper, which he showcases at 0:51 and 1:30. Overall we can expect a combination of GSW and OKC Durant, where he will serve as a tandem isolation duo with Kyrie Irving, while also capitalizing on the shooting talent around him to attack off the ball and score at a high efficiency.
Nikola Jokic
Out of all the players in contention for this award, Jokic is the one that will have the least difference from last season. The roster is largely the same, and if anything his offensive role will only get smaller with the emergence of Jamal Murray inside the NBA bubble. I expect a certain drop off in his isolation touches that result from an increase in isolation opportunities for Murray. At 0:20, we see the best attribute of Jokic, his ability to make plays for his teammates in style. Jokic seems to thrive at the high post, as seen at 0:48, where the nuggets can run an off ball set for either Porter Jr. or Murray, and Jokic can take it himself if necessary. A large portion of Jokic's scoring comes from dump-offs or put backs like the ones seen at 0:55 and 1:08. This type of scoring will work against smaller teams, but may be unsustainable over the course of a season when they have to play teams with quality big men. Another new source of offense for the Nuggets will be Michael Porter Jr. who also had a good stretch of performances in the bubble. Jokic will likely have to defer more to him on offense, like the play at 1:36 where he uses his passing skills to feed him in the post. Overall, the nuggest offense will shift to rely more on Murray and MPJ, which will increase the assists that Jokic get but will likely result in a scoring drop off, and combined with a lackluster rim protection ability his role on the nuggets will slightly decline next year.
Joel Embiid
Joel Embiid may be the most interesting candidate for MVP this year. Coming off a series sweep against the rival Boston Celtics, the Sixers made multiple off season moves that are tailor made to suit their 2 stars in Simmons and Embiid. The most important additions are Seth Curry and Danny Green, who have historically been elite shooters who space the floor for the 2 stars who play predominantly in the paint. At 0:27, we see how the gravity of Embiid setting the screen opens up a shot for Seth curry, as the spacing of Danny Green on the wing and Tobias Harris in the corner prevent adequate help defense. This new shooting likely means that Embiid and Simmons will be able to play well with each other, and Embiid will not have to take 3 pointers to space the floor. Instead he can utilize his mid range game as seen at 0:38 and 1:10, or receive dump off passes from Simmons while heading to the basket as seen at 0:44. The Sixers can also surround Embiid with 4 shooters while he posts up, which will negate any help defense and allow him to use his large frame and good footwork to score more efficiently than prior seasons. An example of this is shown at 1:17 when he scores an and=one off of the post hook. Overall the removal of Al Horford, and Darryl Morey's attempt to bring in more shooting to Philadelphia will greatly benefit Embiid, as his new offensive efficiency combined with his larger defensive role will surely put him in the top of the MVP conversation when the Sixers start to win more games.
Final Rankings
5. Nikola Jokic
While he is a clear superstar in the NBA, the rise of his younger teammates will surely lower his overall impact and role on the team. The nuggets will also have to deal with the most competitive western conference in over a decade, and will have a tough time securing a top 2 seed in the west, which will probably be the only way that Jokic could secure this award. The MVP usually goes to a top scorer in the league, and Jokic will struggle in this area as his season scoring average will likely go down next season.
4. Joel Embiid
Joel Embiid doesn't have the statistical backing that these other superstars do, but he has the most upside from the new construct of his team which is why he is placed this high. He is still an elite 2-way big man, and has the potential to cement himself as a top 10 player in the league this year by being the best player on a team that finishes at the top of the eastern conference.
3. Luka Doncic
The early MVP favorite only finishes 3rd on my list due to the unlikeliness of the Mavericks finishing any higher than the 4th seed. Luka Doncic has not appeared to change his game greatly in the short NBA offseason, and will likely pose similar stats to the ones he had last season. The mavericks will underperform their original expectations with the injury of Porzingis, and while Luka will surely carry their team to a playoff spot, it may not be high enough to secure the award.
2. Kevin Durant
The Slim Reaper returns after nearly 1.5 years since his achilles injury and finishes second on my list for MVP odds. His preseason performances have been reminiscent of his previous seasons, and he will surely place atop the eastern conference as he is surrounded by one the best supporting casts in the league. A lot is still unknown about how much he will play through the course of a 72 game season, but he has the strongest narrative boost out of all the other candidates which will surely give him the much needed boost to finish top 3 in voting. Ideally if he returned to his prime self immediately, he would be number 1 on this list, but his defense looks shaky and he will suffer NBA rust from a lack of practice for the first half of this upcoming season.
1.Anthony Davis
The PER Prince tops my list of who is going to win the MVP for the 2020-2021 season. Anthony Davis still shows signs of improvement entering his 9th year, and he checks all of the boxes for a successful MVP candidate. First, his team finished first in the western conference last season and will likely do it again as they improved with their offseason acquisitions. Secondly, Davis is coming off of his first ring, and will likely have to lead a team to a championship as the best player on his team for the first time in his career, which combined with playing in Los Angeles will give him an excellent storyline for the season. Lastly, his 2 way play style will allow him to put up all-around numbers that can barely be matched by any other superstar. Lebron James playing the facilitator role for the Lakers will make Davis the most efficient scorer in the league, and he will again be in the running for defensive player of the year which will only put a greater spotlight on his name, as he and Lebron attempt to become the next 2 all-time Laker greats.
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