Pacquiao vs Spence: A Comprehensive Fight Analysis

Update: Spence has pulled out of the Pacquiao fight due to an eye injury and Pacquiao is set to fight Cuban fighter Yordenis Ugas. A fight with Spence is still a possibility down the line, so the article still stands

When asked who is the greatest boxer of our generation, only two fighters stand out: Floyd Mayweather and Manny Pacquiao. Mayweather, retired at 44 years of age, is only two years older than his former “rival”. Mayweather has never lost in his professional career, Manny has. However, make no mistake. Of the two, one continues to push the limits. Mayweather has recently fought an exhibition against social media extraordinaire Logan Paul while Pacquiao is fighting arguably the most dangerous welterweight on the planet: Errol Spence Jr. Almost every physical attribute goes to Spence, who enjoys a 4 inch height advantage, a 5 inch reach advantage, and is without question the bigger man. Should Errol win, he secures the best victory on his already impressive resume and continues his argument as being boxing’s best. If Pacquiao, still a deadly fighter but clearly past his prime, manages to beat Spence, there is a case that he is not only the greatest fighter of our generation, but of all time.

In this article, I want to break down numerous fights to go over each fighters’ attributes and skills to predict how the fight will play out.

Manny Pacquiao - Fight Breakdowns

Pacquiao vs De La Hoya

De La Hoya (DLH) enjoyed a 5.5 inch height and a 6 inch reach advantage, which led many to believe that Pacquiao would not find any success in this fight. However, the opposite could not be more true.

From the first round, we saw Pacquiao’s left cross on display - one of his best weapons in the fight. Pacquiao set this shot up by slipping right to avoid getting hit by DLH’s jab, and then shooting the left cross straight down the centerline as he was slipping(which carried a lot of power behind it).

Seeing as DLH did not throw nearly as much as Pacquiao did, the left cross was highly effective in splitting through DLH’s high guard (and would have been for splitting DLH’s jab). Pacquiao landed this splitting left cross multiple times in the round, and this shot became clear as a key to victory. Pacquiao also displayed great head movement in constantly slipping left and right, making him a harder target to hit, and utilized feints in subtly feinting with his hands.

Manny, thanks to his footwork, was able to utilize angles very well. Round 3 saw Manny shoot his left cross and pivot right to get the outside angle. Manny is very defensively aware in that he anticipates De La Hoya throwing in response to this left cross. Therefore, Manny pivots either to his right or to his left to get out of De La Hoya’s target zone completely, also allowing Manny to set up shots from awkward angles that were difficult for DLH to respond to.

Volume punching is one of Manny’s biggest characteristics. His high volume combinations simply smother his opponents, effectively overwhelming them in the process. Manny isn’t purely a headhunter, and in this fight, he was utilizing head/body combinations well (double jab-cross to body-right hook, right hook to body-cross to body-hook to head, etc). DLH was simply being lit up with Manny’s excessive throws. Even when DLH tried to attack, Manny was able to counter very well (for example, round 4 saw Manny time a counter right hook perfectly as De La Hoya was coming in) and follow those countershots with more punches, leaving DLH without any option but to keep his guard up.

Pressure is another important part of Pacquiao’s game plan. Towards the end of the fight, with De La Hoya simply being overwhelmed, Pacquiao was able to walk DLH down. At this point, De La Hoya’s had no choice but to hold back due to Manny’s onslaught. In rounds 7 and 8, Manny simply inched his way forward until DLH was backed up against the ropes or into a corner and unleashed.

Throughout the fight, Pacquiao was far more mobile than DLH was. Pacquiao, light on his feet and bouncing, was almost circling around DLH, who remained far more stationary and hesitant. Pacquiao’s fluid movements in the ring helped give him generalship of the fight, in which he largely controlled the action and pace.

Compubox stats support Pacquiao’s dominance in the fight, with Pacquiao landing 224 of the total 585 punches he threw, equating to a 38% punch accuracy. DLH threw far less and was less accurate as well, with him landing only 83 of the total 402 punches he threw. Manny landed a considerable amount of power punches (195 for 333), which leads to a very respectable 59% punch accuracy. De La Hoya was more accurate (by 1 percent) in jabs, but in the end, De La Hoya’s 83 landed total punches to Pacquiao’s 224 speaks to Pacquiao’s dominance in the fight.

Pacquiao vs Hatton

“Right hook, roll under. Right hook, roll under.” Sure enough, this same combination floored Hatton in the very first round. From the beginning, it was clear how much Pacquiao had the upper hand in speed. Pacquiao caught Hatton early on with a counter left hook until landing that very combination shortly after. Again, this combination highlights Pacquiao’s defensive awareness as he anticipates his opponent counterpunching (just as Hatton wildly swung a left hook) and rolls out to prevent getting caught.

In the second round, Pacquiao connected a devastating left cross to Hatton, ending the fight. The cross was set up in such a way that Manny first led with his jab, with his left hand dropped around his belt line at this point. At the same time, Ricky Hatton slightly lowers his guard just enough for his chin to be exposed. With Pacquiao crouched and his left hand lowered, some fighters would mistake this as their opponent setting up a shot to the body. However, Pacquiao ends up looping his shot such that it ends up hitting Hatton’s chin in the slight area it is exposed. Power punches were the key to Pacquiao’s victory and this vicious knockout of Hatton proved Pacquiao has knockout power.

Pacquiao vs Cotto

Again, we see Pacquiao’s speed, aggression, and pressure on display in his classic fight against Miguel Cotto. Round 2 saw Pacquiao manage his distance well, using his jab to hop in and out of range. Following the jab, Pacquiao also threw his left cross (the same splitting left cross against DLH) with success and at awkward angles as well where Cotto couldn’t land any counterpunch. His explosiveness was on display as in throwing his counterpunches or his combinations, he was too quick for Cotto to respond. Pacquiao threw his combinations in bunches with great speed and accuracy. Round 3 showed Pacquiao’s timing and counterpunching abilities. With Cotto throwing his jab to set up his combinations, he overstepped and was hit with a well timed straight right from Manny.

At a certain point, Cotto’s back faced Pacquiao with Cotto parallel to Manny, giving Manny the favorable angle. What followed was a combination Pacquiao would have great success with later on in the fight. Shortly after Cotto sets his stance, Manny starts off with a jab, straight left to Cotto’s body which drops Cotto’s guard momentarily, and finally a right hook to knockdown Cotto. Manny left absolutely zero breathing room for Cotto and immediately after Cotto resets his stance, Manny throws this combination leaving Cotto without time to react. With round 4, Pacquiao’s head movement, level changes, and feints left Cotto guessing (at one point, he moves his head slightly in Cotto’s range to bait him) and again we see how Pacquiao doesn’t remain stationary. His footwork is also shown in this round as in one sequence, Pacquiao finishes his combination, pivots to his right, and follows with another aggressive high pressure combination (in which he repeats the jab, cross to body, right hook). When Cotto is backed against the ropes, Manny unleashes uppercuts until one slips through Cotto’s guard, knocking down Cotto a second time. Round 6 saw Pacquiao land the cross to body, right hook combination twice more, with the second time backing Cotto up (as with stepping in with each punch, Cotto is forced to go back). In Round 7, Manny once again succeeds in volume punching and with his flurry of punches, Manny is constantly changing angles and throwing his punches at different angles. Manny probes his jab frequently, stays defensively aware, and waits to counterpunch. The fight becomes a game of survival for Cotto until Round 12 when the fight ends, with Manny simply unleashing on Cotto, and the ref ending the fight.

Pacquiao threw 780 total punches, landing 336 for a 43% accuracy. 560 of those 780 were power punches, with 276 power punches landing for a 49% accuracy. Cotto would throw 597 total punches, landing much less with 172 punches. Cotto would throw 300 power punches, landing 93 of them, but would throw and land more jabs than Pacquiao (79 of 297). Pacquiao was relentless in throwing in this fight, as is seen in his punch volume.

Thus, Pacquiao’s key attributes are that he is a quick, aggressive, pressuring volume puncher with great footwork, movement, and ability to counterpunch as well.

Now, three fights are not nearly enough to analyze Pacquiao’s skills in depth. His fights with Morales, Barrera, Bradley, Margarito, and wars with Marquez are all worthy fights to gain more insight into the skills that Pacquiao possesses. Furthermore, the fights against DLH, Cotto, and Hatton were when Pacquiao was in his undeniable prime and boxing was his primary focus. Now, while Pacquiao is still dangerous, he is definitely past his prime as age is not on his side. Furthermore, with Pacquiao’s political commitments being senator (and what is shaping to be a run for the presidency), he has never been this busy outside the ring.

There were questions about whether Pacquiao would still perform at a high level leading up to his fights with Adrien Broner and Keith Thurman, but with two very solid performances, we can be assured that he is here to stay.

However, the question still stands. It is going to be more than two years by the time Pacquiao steps in the ring again. And Pacquiao isn’t facing an easy fighter either, but possibly the most dangerous opponent to face coming off a two year layoff in Errol “The Truth” Spence.

Errol Spence Jr.

Errol Spence Jr. is undeniably one of the best fighters in the world right now, a top five pound for pound talent. An undefeated champion with 27 wins, he is the current unified welterweight champion of the world, holding the IBF and WBC titles. With 21 of his 27 wins coming by way of knockout, he has a very respectable 77.78% knockout percentage.

Spence vs Mikey Garcia

Against Mikey Garcia, Errol Spence enjoyed a 3.5 inch height and a 4 inch reach advantage, making him the far bigger man. This reach and size differential was crucial for Spence, who relied on a very jab heavy gameplan. Given this orthodox vs southpaw matchup, Garcia’s lead hand lined up with Spence’s lead hand. With the reach advantage, this means that Spence, fighting on the outside, could land his jab but Garcia couldn’t (or any other counterpunches as we saw in the fight) because Garcia’s reach was too short to be in range. From the beginning of the fight, Spence opened up with the jab, shooting the stiff jab to Garcia’s lead hand.

What stands out is that Spence tried firing this jab to Garcia’s lead hand instead of Garcia’s head. This serves several purposes. First, in constantly shooting this jab to Garcia’s lead hand, it throws Garcia off. Anytime Garcia tried to get into rhythm and set his combinations and shots up, a stiff jab being thrown to his lead hand forces him to reset and thus ruins any rhythm Garcia had (Spence even revealed this to be a part of his gamelan in a post fight interview). Secondly, shooting the jab to the head means Spence has to step in range even more than just shooting the jab to Garcia’s lead hand, which is obviously closer to Spence than Garcia's head is. If Spence had shot his jabs to Garcia’s head, stepping in range means that Garcia now has an opportunity to land counter punches. Thus, by sticking to throwing the jab to Garcia’s lead hand, Garcia had almost no opportunity to throw or land any counter shots given that Spence is not in range and Garcia’s reach disadvantage. Spence, in leaving Garcia stifled, used his jab to set up his left cross. As the fight progressed and Spence got more comfortable, he started to vary his shots more, throwing uppercuts, hooks, hooks to the body, and fighting more on the inside. However, the jab remained his main key to victory.

Spence vs Porter

If the Mikey Garcia fight showed us the power of Spence’s jab, this fight showed us the opposite. Unlike Garcia, Porter had no issue neutralizing Spence’s jab by following it with counter shots and combinations which had pressure applied to it, backing Spence up. The early moments in the fight saw Spence open up with his jab, but Porter was able to time his counter shots well and closed the distance between him and Spence. Spence continued to try and shoot the jabs, but Porter was continually able to land counter shots, forcing Errol to cover and back up. Another important aspect of the fight was Spence cutting off the ring and backing Porter up against the ropes and into the corner. We see this in round 2 as Spence at one point backs Porter into a corner and as Porter side steps to exit, Spence is able to move parallel with Porter, effectively cutting off the ring. By lunging, Porter can force Spence back, but with an unfortunate overextended punch, Spence is easily able to land a counter left. Another important thing to note is how Porter slowly caught on to this pattern. Developing a sense of timing, Porter pivoted to the outside following one of Spence’s punches which reversed the positions (as Spence was now backed up against the ropes). Spence realized that his jabs were ineffective and the one thing Spence did beautifully while fighting on the inside was his body head combinations. Round 3 saw Spence throw a body shot which lowered Porter’s guard. With Porter’s guard lowered and his head exposed, Spence immediately threw his left hook upstairs which caught Porter off guard. In round 6, Porter was seen pivoting when he backed up against the ropes to escape. Spence forced back Porter as usual, but unleashed a barrage of punches to the body which left Porter unable to time/pivot (Spence is literally pinning Porter to the ropes). Both fighters made great reads in this round as well. Spence was able to connect a left hook to the head, but the second time Spence shoots this punch, Porter times it and pivots. At this point, Porter has his hands lowered and Spence reads this as Porter setting up his shots, so Spence shoots the jab (which lands before Porter’s shots) and exits.

Now, the knockdown in round 11 tipped the fight in favor of Spence. Spence first starts throwing the right hook, which misses as Porter rolls under it. However, Porter’s head is now underneath Errol’s right hand and now, Errol keeps his right hand there to keep Porter’s head in a position for the left hook to connect, which it does. This fight was nothing short of a brilliant performance by the two, with Porter’s ability to counterpunch and work around the jab and Spence’s ability to adjust and fight on the inside.

Spence vs Danny Garcia

Again, Spence’s key to victory was his jab. Danny struggled to pass Spence’s jab, just as seen in the Mikey Garcia fight. Errol kept a high guard during the fight to keep the jab ready to fire when he needed to with speed and power. Errol’s jab isn’t a lazy, light jab; rather, it is a sharp, piston-like jab that accumulates damage overtime for his opponent. Errol has a variety of targets where he will shoot his jab. We saw Errol shoot the jab over Garcia’s guard to his eye region, under it to Garcia’s body, and to his lead hand (similar to the Mikey Garcia fight). Spence followed up the jab with a variety of combinations as well, be it doubling the jab and left/right hook to the body, jab then left hook, and so forth.

One thing to note is when Spence follows up the jab, he plants his lead foot behind Garcia’s, allowing him to effectively close the distance between the two and set up his power shots. When Spence doesn’t follow up the jab, he doesn’t do this and preserves the distance.

CompuBox Stats for this fight show Spence threw a total of 419 jabs, of which he landed 84 compared to 14 out of 362 jabs for Danny Garcia. Power Punches were far more equal, with each landing 103, but Spence throwing less at 288 compared to Garcia’s 338. This supports the narrative that Spence’s jab was key and it worked in applying constant pressure, controlling the pace of the fight, and outsourcing Garcia. Criticism for Garcia was that he wasn’t nearly as active as he should have been, as his game plan of looking for countershots to land was ineffective. Spence’s jab played a major part in slowing Garcia down and preventing him from doing this, although Garcia did have his moments of success in landing such countershots.

Pacquiao Keys To Victory

To summarize, Pacquiao is a high pressure volume puncher where he will use his “punches in bunches” strategy to overwhelm his opponents. With excellent footwork and counterpunching abilities, Pacquiao can work around Spence’s shots (specifically his jab) to close the distance between the pair and simply overwhelm Spence with his high volume combinations. As we have seen in his past fights, Spence hasn’t typically responded well to such pressure and Pacquiao will most certainly be pressuring Spence to make the fight a brawl. If Pacquiao can maintain movement (staying light on his feet, circling around the ring, looking for angles, etc.), he could pose problems for Spence who will have a much harder time landing clean shots on Manny.

Spence Keys To Victory

With Spence having considerable size advantages in both height and reach, amongst other metrics, Spence should look to maintain distance through establishing the jab. Spence’s jab will also function to keep Manny from exploding with his combinations. As Manny often quickly moves in range to fire his shots and move out, a solid jab will not only prevent him from getting in range, but it will also force him to reset when firing. Another key of Spence is his body punching. Spence is an excellent body puncher and so if the fight goes to the inside, Spence will have no trouble landing these shots on Manny. These body shots could prove to be crucial to slowing Manny’s momentum as the fight progresses.

Fight Prediction

It’s safe to say Pacquiao is still a dangerous fighter who poses problems to any top level fighter. Ultimately, youth and size are on Spence’s side but Manny has not deteriorated to the level where Spence is guaranteed a victory. I predict Manny will sustain his aggression throughout the fight, pushing the pace and trying to remain active with a high punch output. Manny will also be the far more mobile fighter out of the two. Spence will try to keep distance and given his reach advantage, I believe Pacquiao will have a difficult time getting past the jab. If the fight does go to the inside, Spence can more than easily bully Pacquiao with his size and power. Spence is, however, susceptible to counter shots and Pacquiao, a great counter puncher in his own right, will look to take advantage of this. In the end, the consensus is that Pacquiao’s time is up, but I just cannot get myself to go against him. He is not an ordinary 42 year old, but a legend of the sport for a reason and has proven his legendary status time and time again. As excellent of a fighter as Spence is, I predict Pacquiao to win by unanimous decision.

Edited by Tarun Batchu