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It's no secret that teams shoot more 3-pointers now than they ever have before. The prolific sensation that was Steph Curry's 2015-2016 season and the creative strategy of "Moreyball" implemented by the Houston Rockets have served as catalysts for this long-standing trend in NBA history. While the 3-point line was added to the NBA game in 1979, it wasn't until the birth of modern analytics when this rule change bred a drastic shift in the way basketball was played. Specifically, the last decade has shown us how quickly the NBA game can pivot in such a short period of time. When comparing teams from the start of the decade to the end, a clear pattern appears in terms of their shot selection frequencies. Below I have plotted the shot chart of 3 notable teams from the beginning and end of the decade.
In the early 2010s, teams had a much more balanced offense, not favoring any one particular type of shot heavily. Strategies were based on physical play, with a much higher emphasis on the post-up and transition game.
The data shows the impact of analytics on various factors of play, including new lineup styles, coaching decisions, and player skillsets. The mid-range shot has now become obsolete, with very few players relying on that shot for isolation and pick and roll scoring. The shots with the highest volume come from around the 3-point line and right next to the basket. Even centers are expected to shoot 3-pointers in the modern NBA, as they can easily be replaced by versatile forwards if they don't possess a perimeter game. Power Forwards like Draymond Green, Robert Covington, and Marcus Morris have all spent ample time playing the center position due to their strong defensive instincts and ability to knock down long-range jump shots.
Is a 3-point heavy game plan a Winning Strategy?
Despite the abundance of 3-point shooters in the league, the most successful teams haven't always adopted this strategy of relying heavily on what the "analytics" dictates. Specifically, in the last 2 years, the 2020 champion Los Angeles Lakers and 2021 champion Milwaukee Bucks were not exceptional teams from beyond the arc, with the former being one of the worst shooting teams in the league that season. The more important observation is that there is an advantage provided to more physically imposing teams in the playoffs, one which they do not seem to get in the regular season. Below, I have plotted NBA team win rates as well as 3-point volume and efficiency in the last 8 years for both the regular season and the postseason.
The regular season data has a significantly stronger relationship than the playoff data, as the regular season correlation coefficient is more than double the value of the post-season one. An r-squared value of 0.32 shows that the teams who shoot efficiently from the 3-point line are often very successful and on average win a lot more games than the mediocre and poor 3-point teams. However, once we get to the playoffs, the data is far more inconclusive. Teams with high 3-point percentages and volume are all across the board, and not clear 3-point shooting pattern is discernable from this data. This indicates that the value of the 3-point shot heavily decreases in the postseason. Also of important note is that for both the regular season and playoffs, the frequency is scattered across the graph, providing further evidence that teams are overvaluing the impact of this shot.
Despite the fact that players shoot an average of 52.9% on 2-point shots and 36.7% on 3-point shots, and expected point per shot values of 1.058 and 1.101 respectively, it would be unfair to judge shots types purely on these numbers. Basketball proves to be a rather situational sport, meaning that the decided action of an NBA offense is rarely ever pre-determined and players have to determine the right type of shot to take on the fly. With the shot clock added in as an extra variable, this gives opportunities for the midrange shot to actually be the best possible shot a team can take. This means that the percentages are not always around 53 for a 2-pointer and 37 for a 3-pointer, but on any given play could be much closer to 75% for a midrange or 10% for a 3-pointer. For teams to win more playoff games, they need to understand how to execute efficiently in situational basketball. The reason that all-time great players like Kobe Bryant, Allen Iverson, and Dwyane Wade were able to take their game to the next level in key playoff runs is not because they shot super high efficiency on 3-pointers, but rather because they could identify the right plays where they could dominate in the mid-range and near the basket. The 3-point shot is clearly overvalued in the modern NBA, and middle-of-the-pack teams that wish to be successful in the playoffs should focus on strengthening their defense and coaching rathe before they try to stack up on too many 3-point specialists.
A truly eye-opening article, especially the second section!